February 2, 2023

Bitcoin (BTC) Might Close 2022 Further Lower; Crucial Resistance Intact

  • BTC flashes bearish signals beneath the resistance zones of $17K and $17.2K.
  • It trades beneath $16.7K and the 1hr 100 SMA.
  • The one-hour chart shows a break past a bearish connecting line with $16,610 resistance.
  • BTC-USD will likely resume drops if it sways beneath the resistance of $17K.

BTC’s price struggles to overcome the resistance at the $17K mark. The leading crypto remains vulnerable to more declines. In that context, Bitcoin might slide beneath the support barrier of $16K before 2022 ends.

BTC Faces Resistance

Bitcoin price gained momentum beneath the support barrier of $16.8K. The crypto dipped further to explore levels under the $16.7K mark and the 1hr 100 SMA (Simple Moving Average). Currently, Bitcoin corrects losses, following declines to the $16,453 lows. It recorded an upsurge past $16.5K and $16,550.

The BTC price rose past the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement mark of the latest move to $16,453 from $16,960. Further, the BTC-USD 1hr chart shows a break beyond a bearish connecting line with $16,610 as resistance. Nonetheless, the bellwether crypto hovers under $16.7K and the 1hr 100 SMA.

Upward movements would push Bitcoin toward the closest resistance at $16,650. The immediate massive obstacle is around $16.7K and the 1hr 100-Simple Moving Average. The resistance corresponds to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent fall to $16,453 from $16,970.

The primary breakout level remains near $17K. A steady move past the resistance of $17K might trigger stable near-term increments. After that, Bitcoin will encounter another hurdle near $17.5K, beyond which $18K would be the nearest price target.

New Bitcoin Declines?

Bitcoin will likely dip further if it fails to launch recoveries beyond the resistance of $16.7K. That would send the leading crypto toward the nearest footing near $16,450 (the latest low). Another support stands at $16,250. More weakness as this barrier will call $16K. Buyers will have to activate their actions at this level to escape $15.5K.

The Market in 2023

The unending list of cryptocurrency hurdles makes 2023 a crucial year for the crypto market and Bitcoin. The FTX impact will likely stretch into the 2023 first quarter, with expanded regulatory chatter potentially testing investor sentiment.

A steady Q1 might mend investor confidence and welcome bullishness in the 2023 second half. Nonetheless, external market forces and crypto-associated events will determine BTC and overall cryptocurrency market direction throughout the upcoming year. They include;

  • The Fed and interest rate policy decisions
  • Ripple vs. SEC outcome.
  • Regulatory reforms.
  • Ukraine-Russia war
  • Cryptocurrency exchange liquidity issues
  • Amplified scrutiny over PoW Networks

An SEC-Ripple settlement, an inclusive regulatory framework that backs crypto innovations while preventing fraud deals, eased inflationary pressures, an end to Federal hikes, and an end to the Ukraine war would support recoveries in Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, investors will adopt the worst, base, and best-case situations as we enter 2023. Meanwhile, the increased recession worries and regulatory reforms will determine Ripple-SEC’s outcome.

2023 Prediction

Considering the monetary policy, regulatory, geopolitical, and economic uncertainty, Bitcoin has multiple paths to take in the coming year. The base case is that eased inflationary pressure would force the Fed to reduce the hiking pace. Additionally, an SEC settlement and economic soft landing should back BTC upsides to $30K.

Meanwhile, the base case has no fireworks and incorporated advances toward a massive regulatory atmosphere. An unimpressive market environment would catalyze more dips in BTC. The worst-case forecast by Walletinvestor.com projects BTC’s decline to sub-$10K.

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